Probability says we can’t. It says that for every 100 decisions on an even money proposition we will get 50 winners and 50 losers. Of course it doesn’t always come out that exact, but on average we’ll win 50 and lose 50. That pretty much eliminates betting a flat rate for each decision. 50 winning wagers and 50 losing wagers would normally break us even, but we have to consider the house edge. At 2% we’ll only get back $98 for every $100 we wager. A slow death for sure, but it's definitely not a winner. But wait a minute. Those decisions are not going to occur win, lose, win, lose and so on. No, they are going to happen randomly with some decisions repeating 2, 3 and even 4 or more times in a row. It then stands to reason that at some times during our series we could be ahead (or behind) more than just a chip or two. Maybe by varying our bet at times we can actually make a few dollars. Let’s examine a couple of wagering methods to try and capitalize on those times when we are ahead or behind.
First we have the D’Alembert, a popular European system
The object with this system is to win a one-unit bet. Which side we bet with does not matter, the system is in the wagering not how we play. The rules are simple. After any loss increase your wager by one unit. After every win reduce one unit. Once you win a wager with a one-unit profit you start over. This method is designed to grind out small wins over and over again. The method is conservative and can show a profit even if your wins are less than your losses. Like the “flat” bettor however, as you get into long runs of play the percentages will still hold true. If you remember nothing else, write this out and commit it to memory.
In the “Long Run” the percentages always hold true.
They are as reliable as the sun rising. Forget that and you might as well just write the casino a check. Am I getting through to you? I hope so because with that statement also comes the secret of the professionals, and the one and only way to win. Do you know what it is yet? Don’t worry I’ll tell you at the end of this article but think about it.
Here’s another wagering method.
Down below is a series of numbers. These numbers will represent betting units. It doesn’t matter what size the units are that you are playing with. You always begin the sequence with the first number. After any win go up to the next number. After any loss start over from the beginning.
1-2-1-2-3-4-5-6
If you win at level 6 you may continue to go up one unit or stay at that level until you lose. Of course at that point you could also just end the series with a nice profit. This method can do very well when we get on the right side of the wins and losses. Once we get our second win at level 2 we are guaranteed to make a profit regardless of where the series ends. Of course we can also get on the wrong side of the decisions. The key is to win the first 2 decisions. When you get lucky recognize it as such and don’t give it all back when your luck changes. Notice I didn’t say “if” your luck changes, I said “when” it changes, because it always does. There is no way to predict when that will happen. It could be today, tomorrow, or even the next decision. The problem is that sometimes it is hard to tell when that happens. Here’s what I do. I don’t try to outguess it. As a general rule, I walk after 3 consecutive losses. Don’t fight the dealer or the table. They always win.
Now that you know a couple of ways to wager let’s see what games offer us the best odds. Let’s look at our options